Water Wars: China's checkmate over Southeast Asia

In its pursuit of renewable energy caused by the meteoric industrialization and urbanization of The People's Republic of China, Beijing has constructed around eighty thousand dams at a rate never seen before in human history. Collectively, these dams generate more hydropower energy than the capacities of Brazil, Canada and the United States put together. However, after damming most of its internal rivers, China is planning to dam the major international rivers that flow out of Tibet.

The Tibetan plateau is an area rich in glaciers and freshwater rivers, making it the source of water for a dozen international rivers that flow into South and Southeast Asia. This is why Tibet is known as the "water tower of Asia”. Collectively, more than 3 billion people across the region depend on these rivers. Any alteration in the water flow of the rivers could create an immense environmental refugee problem in some of the most densely populated nations of the world. This is why, through its control over Tibet, China has total control on water flow over the downstream nations.

China is not new to the prospect of building dams in order to increasing its hydropower energy. The country has spent the last seventy years damming the majority of its internal rivers. This has come as a necessity since the country has been industrializing and urbanizing at a rapid pace, making the demand of energy to skyrocket. Therefore, the hydropower sector of the country has increased over twenty times over what it used to be. Still, this is not enough for China's energy demands. China is now looking at its international rivers flowing out of Tibet. Less than 1% of Tibet's hydropower potential is being exploited, but this is soon to change as Chinese companies are pushing the government into approving hydropower projects in the region. Currently there are 28 projects awaiting approval. Regardless, a few projects were carried out during 2010-2018, and the result of those projects offer us an insight into what the repercussions of a dammed Tibet will have to the rest of Southeast Asia.

The Brahmaputra river is a major international river that runs through China, India and Bangladesh. On the Chinese side, the river has been dammed on every section. This generates great amounts of energy to China's provinces but significantly reduces waterflow towards India and Bangladesh. When in 2016, China announced its construction of three new dams on the river, India raised concerns over the waterflow. China reassured India that there would be no consequences on the waterflow of the river. China stated that the dams would be run-of-the-river dams. These types of dams do not have a large reservoir, and the water that is used to generate electricity flows back into the river, therefore not upsetting the waterflow. However, the reality is different. In order not to disturb the energy production of the dam's generator and overload it, run-of-river facilities usually store large volumes of water during the day and then release them during the night when there is a major demand in energy. Therefore, China manipulates the daily fluctuations of waterflow in the river, damaging agriculture and ecology.

This has upset India, which continuously reminds China on their "memorandum of understanding” concerning the water resources of the international rivers. None of the parties is allowed to upset the water flow of the river. However, this memorandum is non-binding and therefore there is no official legal agreement between China and any of the downstream nations. Back in 1995, when China was significantly poor and in the roots of development, the nations neighboring the Mekong river (Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam) signed an agreement proclaiming that the river belonged to no single country and that only sustainable projects are allowed to be developed in the river. China was present in these negotiations but refused to sign the agreement at the last moment, claiming that they reserve the right to “exercise its territorial jurisdiction”. There was another attempt to lay down legal rules on watercourse of international rivers in 1997 by the United Nations, but China voted against it. If a poor China refused to join any agreements, a strong modern China would not even consider such deal.

Water scarcity will become a very real problem in Asia. With the rapid population growth, urbanization, industrialization and climate change occurring throughout South and Southeast Asia, and with China's hydropower construction over Tibet, there will come a time when there won't be enough water for the population of all the region. Additionally, climate change is increasing the annual glacial melt of Tibet and will decrease 2/3 of its glaciers by 2050. This will cause some rivers to see a stronger waterflow while others will have a weaker one. Millions of people will be at risk of flooding or draught. The United Nations predicts that by 2025, water scarcity will affect 1.8 billion people, and it will be particularly bad in Asia.

Regardless, China's control over Tibetan waterways can be used as a political weapon to sway the policies of the downstream countries into China's favour. Once the hydropower potential of Tibet is fully realized, China could easily flood some areas or leave them to dry if they decide to do so. There are no legal restrictions against this and so China can do this at their own discretion. With such power, one can assume that the downstream nations oppose Chinese damming of Tibet, however this is not the reality. Currently the Southeast Asian nations prefer to maintain their economic relation with China rather than to upset them over the Tibetan damming projects. As a means of a peaceful resolution to this problem, the downstream nations could unite in protest of Chinese damming and avoid water scarcity. Another, yet very dreadful possibility, is an armed conflict over waterflow. This would perhaps mark the start of water wars and the coming of age when the most important resource we've taken for granted for generations is now the scarcest.