More Sticks, Fewer Carrots - Joe Biden's recognition of the Armenian Genocide

On the 21st of April, 106 members of the U.S House of Representatives wrote a letter to President Biden urging him to recognize the long-disputed Armenian Genocide of 1915 [1]. The letter also stated that Biden should recognize the incident in his public statement on the 24th of April. Regardless of the decision, it is clear that this would affect Turkish-American relations. However before analyzing the decision, I’d like to add more context.

The Definition

The current definition of genocide used by nations and international organization comes from The Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, also known as the United Nations General Assembly resolution 260 [2]. Article 3 of this convention lays the definition of genocide as “intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group, as such:

(a) Killing members of the group;

(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;

(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its

physical destruction in whole or in part;

(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;

(e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.”

Turkish Side of the events of 1915

Turkey is one of the countries that did not ratify the convention. The term genocide as a means to describe the events of 1915 is rejected by the Turkish government and the majority of the population due to the common perception of genocide being related to the Holocaust. The population seems to be defending the antithesis of genocide as they would relate the term genocide as being on the same level as the Holocaust.

Back in 2009, there was a campaign that had started after the killing of the Journalist Hrant Dink. The campaign was called “I Apologize” and got over 10 000 signatures to recognize the events [3]. At the time, Prime Minister Erdogan denied the existence of such events. Simultaneously, President Abdullah Gul defended the petition against the public backlash by stating that it is freedom of speech. The political atmosphere of the Turkish internal politics evolved to a point that the events of 1915 are unanimously rejected even including the opposition parties, except for TKP and HDP.[4]

Why now, and Why Biden?

Within these 93 days, the Biden administration made it clear that the USA is back. International policing against illiberal democracies and atrocities are again topics of discussion in the White House and determine good foreign relations with such countries.

[5] During President Biden's speech on 4th of February, he makes this remark” That must be this — we must start with diplomacy rooted in America’s most cherished democratic values: defending freedom, championing opportunity, upholding universal rights, respecting the rule of law, and treating every person with dignity.”.in many other occasions President Biden made it clear that he believes the success of an American president is determined with how much they reflect American values in foreign policy.

The timing of this possible recognition is convenient and beneficial for the Biden administration. This would be a popularity boost where there’s already a momentum of popularity after the change of vaccination policy, the trial of Chauvin, and a positive note from the house of representatives. Also, as the tension in east Ukraine raises, the public may be expecting a more active USA, this may prove to the public that the USA is not afraid of getting its hands dirty against figures that contradict “American Values”.

It’s also helpful to understand the last 5 years of Turkish foreign policy. Turkey’s inconsistent policies and aggression against other states have marooned Turkey within the international community. 5 years of playing good and bad between opposite states like Russia and USA on topics like S400 defence systems and F35 program isolated Turkey and turned Turkey into a sour player. Erdogan's and AKP’s popularity in the international public is at a record low, resulting in Erdogan's image of a bully. This symbolic recognition would be a jab to the bully. It would prove that Joe Biden, unlike Trump, is not fond of authoritarian populists and not afraid of taking action.

A farewell call?

On the 23rd of April, after 93 days and many attempts to get Biden on the phone with Erdogan, finally, the call came. The statement was published on the official white house website “President Joseph R. Biden spoke today with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, conveying his interest in a constructive bilateral relationship with expanded areas of cooperation and effective management of disagreements. The leaders agreed to hold a bilateral meeting on the margins of the NATO Summit in June to discuss the full range of bilateral and regional issues.” [6] However, it was reported from various sources that it might have been a warning before the formal recognition a day later. Turkish Foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, tweeted a statement similar to the White House's. However, he also mentioned the situation with Fetullah Gulen and a collaboration to fight against organized crime.

End of an Era

Even though the house of representatives and senate officially recognized the events of 1915 as genocide, no president went that far. Even though former presidents came close to recognition, they had never used the term genocide. The reason for that is avoid breaking ties or spoil the relationship with Turkey, knowing the essentiality of Turkish contribution to NATO and cooperation in the Middle east. Even Barack Obama did not go that far, considering posing with a baseball bat as he was taking a call from Erdogan. However, Turkey up until the last 3 years has never been this lonely. “Any move by the Biden administration to recognize the mass killings as a genocide will further harm already strained ties between the NATO allies,” said the Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, on April 20.

The Statement

As of today (24th of April, 2021), Joe Biden became the first president to recognize the Armenian Genocide. Joe Biden officially recognized the event of 1915 as a genocide in his statement on Armenian Remembrance Day. [7]

“Each year on this day, we remember the lives of all those who died in the Ottoman-era Armenian genocide and recommit ourselves to preventing such an atrocity from ever again occurring. Beginning on April 24, 1915, with the arrest of Armenian intellectuals and community leaders in Constantinople by Ottoman authorities, one and a half million Armenians were deported, massacred, or marched to their deaths in a campaign of extermination. We honor the victims of the Meds Yeghern so that the horrors of what happened are never lost to history. And we remember so that we remain ever-vigilant against the corrosive influence of hate in all its forms.”

A statement from the Turkish Foreign Ministry replies “We reject and denounce in the strongest terms the statement of the President of the US regarding the events of 1915 made under the pressure of radical Armenian circles and anti-Turkey groups on 24 April.”[8]

Additionally, the Turkish minister of Foreign Affairs tweeted:

My Thoughts on the recognition

The nature of the recognition of the Armenian Genocide is purely symbolic. It is a powerful message from Biden to the world that he is not afraid to handle sticky situations like this one. In my opinion, the timing of this decision could be only possible on this day. Turkey is going through one of the hardest political crises, the economy is in pieces and the country is already politically alienated in the international arena. Between the two poles, Turkey tried to balance its foreign policy with the benefits of being a part of NATO and keeping Russian nuclear plants, pipelines, tourists, and more. Despite trying hard, things were not the same after the imprisonment of Priest Branson and the S400 crisis. The tone of the politics got even tougher between 2016 and 2020 due to American lack of involvement.

This might have been a punishment to Erdogan for not letting [10] S400 go, or even not accommodating the American Navy in the Black Sea.

My predictions

There will be a display of outrage from the Turkish public and government. I predict that Turkey at this moment has no other choice than to be dominated given their current status. Already politically isolated, economically kneeled Turkey could only make noise against this. This is a major accomplishment for Biden’s administration. I believe the carrot and stick policy of the Obama administration is back with more sticks to give and fewer carrots to spare. I would not be surprised to hear of incoming sanctions against the Halk Bank in the next few weeks. This case has been held off by the Trump administration, however those days are over and Biden proved that he is here to get things done. I expect a more aggressive USA in the upcoming NATO Summit in June. After this point, the stakes of Turkey resisting such actions are extremely low without punishment.

Regardless, this issue is far from being resolved and we should keep an eye out on the aftermath of these events in the following weeks.