“I won’t go away that easily” – The last days of a Belarussian dictator

Pratasevich being detained [Source: AP]

On May 23 Raman Pratasevich was on a flight from Athens to Vilnius, when his plane suddenly changed course landing in Minsk. The plane freight received a bomb threat from Belarussian authorities requesting the plane to land on the Belarussian territory. A Belarussian Force fighter was lifted up into the air to follow the Ryanair passenger plane on its landing. The bomb threat was fake. Immediately after the landing Raman was detained and charged with inciting protests against the re-election of Alyaksandr Lukashenka in 2020. With these charges, Raman can be put to jail for 15 years and even executed.

So, what did he do?

Raman Pratasevich is an independent Belarussian journalist and founder of Nexta, a Telegram news channel. When in 2020 Lukashenka got re-elected for the sixth time with a landslide 80% of votes, Belarussians had enough. Mass protests against rigged elections swiped the country, but this hasn’t shaken Lukashenka’s confidence. Armed with dubious comparisons of protesters to “unemployed [individuals] with criminal past”, stun grenades, police, army and actual tanks, Lukashenka was determined to suppress the protests and continue his reign. But this time it wasn’t that easy.

Nexta played a crucial role during the protests providing information about detentions, police violence and human rights abuses not only to Belarussians themselves, but all over the world. Nexta is one of the few alternative news sources still existent in Belarus. The use of Telegram was the only way for the journalists to bend Lukashenka’s efforts to restrict access to information. As protests against the authoritarian regime lasted for months, Nexta became almost a guideline for the protestors, informing about the places to avoid and places to meet [1]. Detentions of tens of thousands of protesters and brutal violence against civilians were recorded and published by Nexta. Eventually, Raman Pratasevich was placed on the terrorist watch list, however numerous efforts to restrict access to Nexta were unsuccessful.

What now?

On May 24 a video with Raman’s ‘confession’ was released. On the video the 26-years-old activist admits to inciting protests, adding that he is being treated “as correct as possible and according to the law” [2]. Bruises can be seen on his forehead.

Raman Pratasevich in the video released by Belarussian authorities.

It is yet unclear what fate awaits Raman, but EU leaders already expressed outrage with the activist’s detention. Ursula von der Leyen – the European Commission president – underlined that heavy sanctions will be imposed [3]. The European Union already imposed sanctions on Belarussian authorities in October 2020, as a response to the brutal suppression of protests. Restrictions included a travel ban and freezing of assets against individuals who have ties with Lukashenka’s government [4]. On Monday, the EU decided to adopt more economic sanctions targeting particular individuals. Lithuania was the first EU country to suspend flights between Belarus and Lithuania as well as any flights over the Belarussian airspace. Shortly after Ukraine announced suspension of airline connections between Ukraine and Belarus.

Are sanctions enough? Yes and no. On the one hand, economic sanctions should not bother Lukashenka as he has constant Russian financial support. On the other hand, sanctions make Lukashenka more dependent on Russia than ever, which is not ideal for him either. We can agree that EU sanctions against Lukashenka and his people might not have been enough to force some real change. But now they seem to be getting more rigorous.

Lukashenka has been in power for 27 years – longer than Raman Pratasevich has been alive – and the current situation is a substantial challenge for his regime. The Belarussian protests are still ongoing, either on the streets or online, and Lukashenka finds himself in a loop: the more he tries to hold power in his hands, the more backlash from the international community he receives, the more difficult it gets to impose his rule. If he is willing to hijack an airplane to get an activist, it looks like he is desperate.